Playoff Scenarios

For the 3rd time in five seasons, the Baltimore Kingfishers have left their chances of a playoff berth up to the last match of the regular season. In both 2006 and 2007, they tragically went from possibly taking the final Eastern Division Playoff Spot to finishing last in the division.

This time, Baltimore faces the Tennessee Tempo while the Philadelphia Inventors, trailing by 0.5 match points, face the Carolina Cobras and the Queens Pioneers, trailing by 1 match point, play the New Jersey Knockouts. With a match victory, Baltimore can clinch the playoff berth without worrying about how Philadelphia and Queens do in their matches. However, if Baltimore does not win, then check the USCL Standings and Tie-breaks, and you will see that in the first tie-breaker, Philadelphia and Queens are 1.5 and 2.0 game points behind Baltimore, respectively.

For the third tie-breaker (opponents' average rating), Philadelphia can pass Baltimore if Carolina fields a lineup with a rating average of 22.5 points higher than Tennessee will field, which is likely if Carolina and Tennessee have similar lineups as they did last week. Baltimore (2400.575) would edge Philadelphia (2398.375) if there are no more lineup changes. Queens would not need the third tie-breaker if the Pioneers tie for the final playoff spot.

For the fourth tie-breaker, Philadelphia defeated Baltimore 1.5-0.5 in head-to-head results, and again, Queens would not need the fourth tie-breaker if the Pioneers tie for the final playoff spot.

Got all that? Now, for the difficult to predict, but possibly crucial second tie-breaker: Strength of Schedule (SOS), which is the sum of opponents' records against other teams. This means that all the matches of the final week, except Dallas vs. San Francisco, could affect this playoff race (Queens did play SF, but Queens cannot be caught in SOS by either Baltimore or Philadelphia). Philadelphia's SOS is (34.0-34.0) while Baltimore's SOS is (32.5-35.5), and they both play teams with (2.0-7.0) records against other teams, so there is only a 1.5 point gap in SOS. Queens has an SOS of (32.5-35.5), but the Pioneers play New Jersey with a (8.0-1.0) record against other teams; thus giving Queens insurmountable leads of 4.5 and 6 points over Philadelphia and Baltimore in SOS.

If Baltimore draws, then Philadelphia would take the final playoff spot IF:

• Philadelphia wins 4-0
  
• Philadelphia wins 3.5-0.5 and at least three of these do NOT happen:
  
  • Arizona wins
    
  • Chicago loses
    
  • New Jersey loses
    
  • New York wins
    
  • Exactly TWO of the above four teams draw
    Note: If exactly THREE of the above listed team draws and the fourth team performs as listed above, then Philadelphia and Baltimore have the same SOS; see the aforementioned third and fourth tie-breaks.
    

If Baltimore loses, then:

• Queens gets the final playoff spot if:
  
  • Queens wins while scoring at least 2.0 game points more than Baltimore scores and Philadelphia draws or loses
    
• Philadelphia gets the final playoff spot if:
  
  • Philadelphia wins
    
  • Philadelphia draws, Queens draws or loses, and:
    
    • Baltimore loses 0-4
      
    • Baltimore loses 0.5-3.5 and at least three of these do NOT happen:
      
      • Arizona wins
        
      • Chicago loses
        
      • New Jersey loses
        
      • New York wins
        
      • Exactly TWO of the above four teams draw
        Note: If exactly THREE of the above listed team draws and the fourth team performs as listed above, then Philadelphia and Baltimore have the same SOS; see the aforementioned third and fourth tie-breaks.
        

If any of the above scenarios do not occur, then Baltimore takes the final playoff spot.

Now that the scenarios are clear (I hope), let's get on with the games!

Updated 3rd tie-breaker @ 12:50 AM, Monday, Nov. 2nd.

Week 9 Results

Baltimore Kingfishers vs. New York Knights 1-3
GM Sergey Erenburg (2616) - GM Giorgi Kacheishvili (2666) 0.5-0.5
IM Tegshsuren Enkhbat (2430) - GM Pascal Charbonneau (2560) 0-1
WGM Sabina-Francesca Foisor (2390) - NM Matt Herman (2275) 0-1
Jared Defibaugh (2155) - NM Yaacov Norowitz (2354) 0.5-0.5

Here's How to Publish a Chess Game.

World Senior Chess Championship

Defending World Senior Co-Champion GM Larry Kaufman reports in Chess Life Online on his harried arrival in Condino, Italy for the 19th World Senior Chess Championship. Good luck to GM Larry Kaufman and may his tournament go more smoothly than his trip there!

Week 9 Lineup

Wednesday, 7:15 PM EDT
Time Control 90 min. with 30 sec. increment

Baltimore Kingfishers vs. New York Knights
GM Sergey Erenburg (2616) - GM Giorgi Kacheishvili (2666)
IM Tegshsuren Enkhbat (2430) - GM Pascal Charbonneau (2560)
WGM Sabina-Francesca Foisor (2390) - NM Matt Herman (2275)
Jared Defibaugh (2155) - NM Yaacov Norowitz (2354)

Note: Players in bold have the white pieces.

Week 8 Results

Philadelphia Inventors vs. Baltimore Kingfishers 2-2
IM Bryan Smith (2528) - GM Sergey Erenburg (2616) 0.5-0.5
FM Tom Bartell (2411) - IM Tegshsuren Enkhbat (2430) 0.5-0.5
IM Richard Costigan (2288) - FM Ralph Zimmer (2282) 0-1
WGM Jennifer Shahade (2301) - Jared Defibaugh (2155) 1-0

Here's How to Publish a Chess Game.

Week 8 Lineup

Wednesday, 7:15 PM EDT
Time Control 90 min. with 30 sec. increment

Philadelphia Inventors vs. Baltimore Kingfishers
IM Bryan Smith (2528) - GM Sergey Erenburg (2616)
FM Tom Bartell (2411) - IM Tegshsuren Enkhbat (2430)
IM Richard Costigan (2288) - FM Ralph Zimmer (2282)
WGM Jennifer Shahade (2301) - Jared Defibaugh (2155)

Note: Players in bold have the white pieces.

Week 7 Photos

All photos taken by Masako Uesugi.

Week 7 Results

Baltimore Kingfishers vs. New Jersey Knockouts 0.5-3.5
IM Tegshsuren Enkhbat (2430) - GM Joel Benjamin (2641) 0.5-0.5
GM Larry Kaufman (2444) - GM Boris Gulko (2609) 0-1
FM Shinsaku Uesugi (2354) - IM Albert Kapengut (2379) 0-1
Jared Defibaugh (2155) - Anna Matlin (2003) 0-1

Here's How to Publish a Chess Game.

Week 7: Baltimore vs. New Jersey

This week the Kingfishers face the New Jersey Knockouts who have been having fantastic season so far. We need a win to put us back in third place. A draw would keep us tied with New York who are now a half point ahead of us in the standings after their draw against Philly last Monday. We were able to hold them off after last week's exciting battle in which it was hard to tell which way the match was going to go all the way to the end. Leonid Kritz had lost early, Shinsaku Uesugi won soon after and Sergey Erenburg fought on for a while in a seemingly equal position. Meanwhile, I was trying to work a nice queen side advantage against Yaacov Norowitz who out rated me by more than 200 points. Unfortunately I succumbed in time pressure in what had suddenly become a very complicated position. Fortunately, Sergey somehow pulled out a win to save the match.

Talk about tough fights! New Jersey will certainly be looking to recover from their loss last week and are using their double GM lineup against us this week. This week will be even tougher, although even a loss this week would keep us in fourth place in the East. Meanwhile, Queens could catch up to us, but they would have to topple Boston.

Board 1: IM Tegshsuren Enkhbat (2430) BAL vs. GM Joel Benjamin (2641) NJ

Originally this was going to be a very exciting rematch from last year between GMs Erenburg and Benjamin, however, Sergey was unable to play this week due to his heavy work load. Instead, IM Enkhbat will take the reins on board one and we have high hopes. Recently his performances have been quite impressive winning both the UMBC Championships and more recently the MD Open. Enkhbat is a very solid player and will have white so I give him a good shot for at least a draw despite the large rating gap.

Board 2: GM Boris Gulko (2609) NJ vs. GM Larry Kaufman (2444) BAL

Another exciting GM vs. GM match here. Again the Knockouts have the advantage as Gulko has been a force to be reckoned with. Larry will have his work cut out for him, but he has been performing well this year so I would not be surprised if Gulko's USCL winning streak is ended once and for all.

Board 3: FM Shinsaku Uesugi (2354) BAL vs. IM Albert Kapengut (2379) NJ

This is the only game in this match that is actually close on paper. Both players have been doing well so far. Uesugi has been critical to our success so far this year and his result this week will be no different. Seeing as New Jersey has nice advantages on boards one and two, it seems that we cannot afford anything less than a draw on board three. No pressure Shin! You can do it!

Board 4: Anna Matlin (2003) NJ vs. Jared Defibaugh (2155) BAL

Board four is a clear advantage for Baltimore. Jared is a pretty aggressive player so I expect he should come out on top of any complications. At least I hope he will because this is where New Jersey has been the weakest and without a good result on this board it will be very difficult to beat them.


So far this week there have been two upsets and I don't think they will end there. I think we have a good shot at pulling out a draw against New Jersey. Who knows, maybe Queens will upset Boston and Chicago pull out a similar upset against Tennessee. Seattle vs. Miami is certainly crucial for the standings in the West. I actually think Miami is going to push hard for the win and I think they will be successful. Wouldn't it be nice if San Francisco takes out Arizona? Although that is not a really uneven match, it is important for the Mechanics to get an upset here and move one step closer to the championship match against Baltimore.

Good luck to everyone! Should be a night full of interesting fights!

Week 7 Lineup

Wednesday, 7:15 PM EDT
Time Control 90 min. with 30 sec. increment

Baltimore Kingfishers vs. New Jersey Knockouts
IM Tegshsuren Enkhbat (2430) - GM Joel Benjamin (2641)
GM Larry Kaufman (2444) - GM Boris Gulko (2609)
FM Shinsaku Uesugi (2354) - IM Albert Kapengut (2379)
Jared Defibaugh (2155) - Anna Matlin (2003)

Note: Players in bold have the white pieces.

Week 6 Photos

All photos taken by Masako Uesugi.

Week 6 Results

New York Knights vs. Baltimore Kingfishers 2-2
GM Giorgi Kacheishvili (2666) - GM Leonid Kritz (2654) 1-0
GM Pascal Charbonneau (2560) - GM Sergey Erenburg (2616) 0-1
NM Matt Herman (2275) - FM Shinsaku Uesugi (2354) 0-1
NM Yaacov Norowitz (2354) - Ian Harris (2172) 1-0

Here's How to Publish a Chess Game.

Week 6 Lineup

Monday, 7:15 PM EDT
Time Control 90 min. with 30 sec. increment

New York Knights vs. Baltimore Kingfishers
GM Giorgi Kacheishvili (2666) - GM Leonid Kritz (2654)
GM Pascal Charbonneau (2560) - GM Sergey Erenburg (2616)
NM Matt Herman (2275) - FM Shinsaku Uesugi (2354)
NM Yaacov Norowitz (2354) - Ian Harris (2172)

Note: Players in bold have the white pieces.

U.S. Women's Championship

Starting this weekend is the U.S. Women's Chess Championship. The field includes two of our own Kingfishers, WGM Sabina-Francesca Foisor and WIM Tsagaan Battsetseg! We wish both of them good luck at this prestigious tournament!

Check out Chess Life Online's coverage and the official schedule. Live coverage will be provided by Internet Chess Club, Monroi, and the official site.