Playoff Scenarios

For the 3rd time in five seasons, the Baltimore Kingfishers have left their chances of a playoff berth up to the last match of the regular season. In both 2006 and 2007, they tragically went from possibly taking the final Eastern Division Playoff Spot to finishing last in the division.

This time, Baltimore faces the Tennessee Tempo while the Philadelphia Inventors, trailing by 0.5 match points, face the Carolina Cobras and the Queens Pioneers, trailing by 1 match point, play the New Jersey Knockouts. With a match victory, Baltimore can clinch the playoff berth without worrying about how Philadelphia and Queens do in their matches. However, if Baltimore does not win, then check the USCL Standings and Tie-breaks, and you will see that in the first tie-breaker, Philadelphia and Queens are 1.5 and 2.0 game points behind Baltimore, respectively.

For the third tie-breaker (opponents' average rating), Philadelphia can pass Baltimore if Carolina fields a lineup with a rating average of 22.5 points higher than Tennessee will field, which is likely if Carolina and Tennessee have similar lineups as they did last week. Baltimore (2400.575) would edge Philadelphia (2398.375) if there are no more lineup changes. Queens would not need the third tie-breaker if the Pioneers tie for the final playoff spot.

For the fourth tie-breaker, Philadelphia defeated Baltimore 1.5-0.5 in head-to-head results, and again, Queens would not need the fourth tie-breaker if the Pioneers tie for the final playoff spot.

Got all that? Now, for the difficult to predict, but possibly crucial second tie-breaker: Strength of Schedule (SOS), which is the sum of opponents' records against other teams. This means that all the matches of the final week, except Dallas vs. San Francisco, could affect this playoff race (Queens did play SF, but Queens cannot be caught in SOS by either Baltimore or Philadelphia). Philadelphia's SOS is (34.0-34.0) while Baltimore's SOS is (32.5-35.5), and they both play teams with (2.0-7.0) records against other teams, so there is only a 1.5 point gap in SOS. Queens has an SOS of (32.5-35.5), but the Pioneers play New Jersey with a (8.0-1.0) record against other teams; thus giving Queens insurmountable leads of 4.5 and 6 points over Philadelphia and Baltimore in SOS.

If Baltimore draws, then Philadelphia would take the final playoff spot IF:

• Philadelphia wins 4-0
  
• Philadelphia wins 3.5-0.5 and at least three of these do NOT happen:
  
  • Arizona wins
    
  • Chicago loses
    
  • New Jersey loses
    
  • New York wins
    
  • Exactly TWO of the above four teams draw
    Note: If exactly THREE of the above listed team draws and the fourth team performs as listed above, then Philadelphia and Baltimore have the same SOS; see the aforementioned third and fourth tie-breaks.
    

If Baltimore loses, then:

• Queens gets the final playoff spot if:
  
  • Queens wins while scoring at least 2.0 game points more than Baltimore scores and Philadelphia draws or loses
    
• Philadelphia gets the final playoff spot if:
  
  • Philadelphia wins
    
  • Philadelphia draws, Queens draws or loses, and:
    
    • Baltimore loses 0-4
      
    • Baltimore loses 0.5-3.5 and at least three of these do NOT happen:
      
      • Arizona wins
        
      • Chicago loses
        
      • New Jersey loses
        
      • New York wins
        
      • Exactly TWO of the above four teams draw
        Note: If exactly THREE of the above listed team draws and the fourth team performs as listed above, then Philadelphia and Baltimore have the same SOS; see the aforementioned third and fourth tie-breaks.
        

If any of the above scenarios do not occur, then Baltimore takes the final playoff spot.

Now that the scenarios are clear (I hope), let's get on with the games!

Updated 3rd tie-breaker @ 12:50 AM, Monday, Nov. 2nd.