Playoff Scenarios

For the 3rd time in five seasons, the Baltimore Kingfishers have left their chances of a playoff berth up to the last match of the regular season. In both 2006 and 2007, they tragically went from possibly taking the final Eastern Division Playoff Spot to finishing last in the division.

This time, Baltimore faces the Tennessee Tempo while the Philadelphia Inventors, trailing by 0.5 match points, face the Carolina Cobras and the Queens Pioneers, trailing by 1 match point, play the New Jersey Knockouts. With a match victory, Baltimore can clinch the playoff berth without worrying about how Philadelphia and Queens do in their matches. However, if Baltimore does not win, then check the USCL Standings and Tie-breaks, and you will see that in the first tie-breaker, Philadelphia and Queens are 1.5 and 2.0 game points behind Baltimore, respectively.

For the third tie-breaker (opponents' average rating), Philadelphia can pass Baltimore if Carolina fields a lineup with a rating average of 22.5 points higher than Tennessee will field, which is likely if Carolina and Tennessee have similar lineups as they did last week. Baltimore (2400.575) would edge Philadelphia (2398.375) if there are no more lineup changes. Queens would not need the third tie-breaker if the Pioneers tie for the final playoff spot.

For the fourth tie-breaker, Philadelphia defeated Baltimore 1.5-0.5 in head-to-head results, and again, Queens would not need the fourth tie-breaker if the Pioneers tie for the final playoff spot.

Got all that? Now, for the difficult to predict, but possibly crucial second tie-breaker: Strength of Schedule (SOS), which is the sum of opponents' records against other teams. This means that all the matches of the final week, except Dallas vs. San Francisco, could affect this playoff race (Queens did play SF, but Queens cannot be caught in SOS by either Baltimore or Philadelphia). Philadelphia's SOS is (34.0-34.0) while Baltimore's SOS is (32.5-35.5), and they both play teams with (2.0-7.0) records against other teams, so there is only a 1.5 point gap in SOS. Queens has an SOS of (32.5-35.5), but the Pioneers play New Jersey with a (8.0-1.0) record against other teams; thus giving Queens insurmountable leads of 4.5 and 6 points over Philadelphia and Baltimore in SOS.

If Baltimore draws, then Philadelphia would take the final playoff spot IF:

• Philadelphia wins 4-0
  
• Philadelphia wins 3.5-0.5 and at least three of these do NOT happen:
  
  • Arizona wins
    
  • Chicago loses
    
  • New Jersey loses
    
  • New York wins
    
  • Exactly TWO of the above four teams draw
    Note: If exactly THREE of the above listed team draws and the fourth team performs as listed above, then Philadelphia and Baltimore have the same SOS; see the aforementioned third and fourth tie-breaks.
    

If Baltimore loses, then:

• Queens gets the final playoff spot if:
  
  • Queens wins while scoring at least 2.0 game points more than Baltimore scores and Philadelphia draws or loses
    
• Philadelphia gets the final playoff spot if:
  
  • Philadelphia wins
    
  • Philadelphia draws, Queens draws or loses, and:
    
    • Baltimore loses 0-4
      
    • Baltimore loses 0.5-3.5 and at least three of these do NOT happen:
      
      • Arizona wins
        
      • Chicago loses
        
      • New Jersey loses
        
      • New York wins
        
      • Exactly TWO of the above four teams draw
        Note: If exactly THREE of the above listed team draws and the fourth team performs as listed above, then Philadelphia and Baltimore have the same SOS; see the aforementioned third and fourth tie-breaks.
        

If any of the above scenarios do not occur, then Baltimore takes the final playoff spot.

Now that the scenarios are clear (I hope), let's get on with the games!

Updated 3rd tie-breaker @ 12:50 AM, Monday, Nov. 2nd.

Week 2 Results

Queens Pioneers vs. Baltimore Kingfishers 2-2
IM Dmitry Schneider (2510) - GM Sergey Erenburg (2616) 0.5-0.5
IM Yury Lapshun (2504) - IM Tegshsuren Enkhbat (2430) 0.5-0.5
FM Andrei Zaremba (2398) - FM Shinsaku Uesugi (2354) 1-0
WFM Elizabeth Vicary (2106) - WIM Tsagaan Battsetseg (2265) 0-1

Here's How to Publish a Chess Game

Week 2 Preview

So last week went according to plan and we started the season off well by defeating Carolina 3-1. Leonid Kritz and Jared Defibaugh made their debuts in the league and did not disappoint. On Tuesday we face Queens in what is looking to be a pretty exciting and difficult to predict encounter.

Queens also has an extremely flexible roster and like us they have chosen almost a completely different line up from what they had last week. Lets look at it board by board...

Board 1 IM Dmitry Schneider 2510 (QNS) vs. GM Sergey Erenburg 2616 (BAL):

This match will see Erenburg try to pick up from where he left off last season. Although he has played far less chess than he did last summer, it seems he has gotten some games in here and there. So hopefully he will be in good form. Meanwhile, can Schneider take over the reins from Stripunsky and lead the Pioneers down the long road to victory? It is hard to think that he will be prepared since it looks as if he hasn't played in a single tournament in quite a while. It will be difficult for him to pull through for his team if he is still shaking off the dust.

Board 2 IM Tegshsuren Enkhbat 2430 (BAL) vs. IM Yury Lapshun 2504 (QNS):

Queens' hopes for a win will fall on this board as this is where they hold the greatest rating advantage. Both players have been active lately which means they should both be playing well. I expect Lapshun will push hard for a win but if Enkhbat is able to hold a draw or better, it will probably guarantee Baltimore the win.

Board 3 FM Andrei Zaremba 2398 (QNS) vs. FM Shinsaku Uesugi 2354 (BAL):

No GM on board 3 for Baltimore this week as Larry Kaufman is participating in the US Senior Open. Good luck Larry! Zaremba returning to board 3 for Queens is not a real surprise as he is really the only player that fills the gap between the 2500's and the many experts on their team. He had a strong performance in Week 1 so it will be a tall order for Uesugi's first ever USCL match. However Uesugi has been improving rapidly so Zaremba will surely have his hands full.

Board 4 WIM Tsagaan Battsetseg 2265 (BAL) vs. WFM Elizabeth Vicary 2106 (QNS):

Week 2 sees the return of our team manager Tsagaan Battsetseg after not playing at all last season. She will surely be out for blood and a repeat performance of her previous encounter with Vicary at the 2007 US Women's Championships. Battsetseg holds a nice rating advantage on this board but I expect it to be an exciting struggle since Vicary has already indicated her intentions for revenge. By the way, I don't recall the last time two women faced off in the USCL. Does anyone know or is this a first? And what is the deal with Battsetseg only playing during odd years? I will have to investigate whether this is some sort of long term strategy or just a coincidence.


So I think I made enough bold predictions to last a while so I am not going to bother predicting the score on this one. However, for sure I can say that Tuesday's match between Queens and Baltimore will be a bloody affair. Queens will be looking to rebound from their loss against Boston while Baltimore will want to continue with their strong start by posting a second straight win. My first and only game in the USCL (up until now at least) was against Queens last year and we suffered a very unfortunate loss, so revenge is certainly in the air.

Week 2 Lineup

Tuesday, 7:15 PM EDT
Time Control 90 min. with 30 sec. increment

Queens Pioneers vs. Baltimore Kingfishers
IM Dmitry Schneider (2510) - GM Sergey Erenburg (2616)
IM Yury Lapshun (2504) - IM Tegshsuren Enkhbat (2430)
FM Andrei Zaremba (2398) - FM Shinsaku Uesugi (2354)
WFM Elizabeth Vicary (2106) - WIM Tsagaan Battsetseg (2265)

Note: Players in bold have the white pieces.

Week 4 Results

Baltimore Kingfishers vs. Queens Pioneers 1-3
GM Pawel Blehm (2580) - IM Eli Vovsha (2504) 1-0
FM Tegshsuren Enkhbat (2399) - IM Alex Lenderman (2463) 0-1
FM Ralph Zimmer (2261) - NM Parker Zhao (2227) 0-1
Ian Harris (2051) - NM Michael Thaler (2146) 0-1

Week 4 Lineup

Monday, 7:15 PM EDT
Time Control 90 min. with 30 sec. increment

Baltimore Kingfishers vs. Queens Pioneers
GM Pawel Blehm (2580) - IM Eli Vovsha (2504)
FM Tegshsuren Enkhbat (2399) - IM Alex Lenderman (2463)
FM Ralph Zimmer (2261) - NM Parker Zhao (2227)
Ian Harris (2051) - NM Michael Thaler (2146)

Note: Players in bold have the white pieces.